Dr Kesten Green

Senior Marketing Scientist

As well as one of the Institute’s Senior Marketing Scientists, Kesten is a leading forecasting researcher and is co-Director of ForecastingPrinciples.com and AdvertisingPrinciples.com. During his career Kesten has developed new and better forecasting methods, and has published on advertising, strategy, and public policy issues affecting businesses in, inter alia, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Business Research, and Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. He was previously a founder and director of four businesses, including a market research firm.

Academic Publications

KC Green (2023), Predictive validity of Lott & Varney’s (2022) OLS model of European homicide rates, ResearchGate

JS Armstrong, KC Green (2022), The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge, Cambridge University Press

KC Green (2021), Forecasts of doctor visits for flu: Simple conservative methods beat Google’s big data machine learning model, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25199.56487/1

Graefe, A., Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2019), ‘Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries’, PLoS ONE 14 (1): e0209850.

Dawes, J., Kennedy, R., Green, K. C., & Sharp, B. (2018), ‘Forecasting advertising and media effects on sales: Econometrics and alternatives’, International Journal of Market Research, 60 (6), 611-620.

Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2018), ‘Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-Based Checklists’, Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, 28, 103–159.

Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2017), ‘Guidelines for science: Evidence-based checklists’.

Armstrong, J. S., Du, R., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2016), ‘Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles: An application of the index method’, European Journal of Marketing.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2015), ‘Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence’, Journal of Business Research, 1678–1685.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015), ‘Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative’, Journal of Business Research, 1717–1731.

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2015), ‘Golden Rule of Forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you’, Journal of Business Research, 1768–1771.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2014), ‘Forecasting global climate change. In A. Moran (Ed.), Climate Change: The Facts 2014’, (pp. 170–186), Melbourne, Australia: IPA.

Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2013), ‘Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies: Conclusions from evidence-based research’, Journal of Business Research, 66,1922–1927.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2012), ‘Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising’, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 31, 293–304.

Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2012), ‘Should we put a price on free speech?’, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 31, 325.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2011), ‘Research on forecasting for the manmade global warming alarm. Energy and Environment’, 22, 1091–1104.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011), ‘Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts’, International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 69–80.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R., & Wright, M. (2010), ‘Predicting elections from politicians’ faces’. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 22, 511–522.

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Soon, W. (2009), ‘Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making‘, International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 826–832.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007), ‘Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts‘, Energy and Environment, 18, 997-1021.

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2007), ‘Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared‘, Foresight, 8, 17-20.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007), ‘Structured analogies for forecasting‘, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 365-376.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007), ‘The value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts‘, Interfaces, 37, 287-299.

Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2007), ‘Competitor-oriented objectives: The myth of market share‘, International Journal of Business, 12 (1), 117-136.

Green, K. C. (2005), ‘Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence‘, International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472.

Green, K. C. (2002), ‘Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement‘, International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344.


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